Fiscal Outlook Report
Histórico
Períodicidade: Semestral1° Semestre
The Fiscal Outlook Report presents forecasts for the main Central Government fiscal variables in a 10-year horizon. The report provides disaggregated estimates for primary revenues and expenditures, as well as for Central Government and Public Sector primary balances, and scenarios for Brazilian public debt, especially for the General Government Gross Debt (GGGD) and Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) concepts.
The document also provides debt sensitivity and sustainability analyses and forecasts for their main determinants (borrowing requirements and interests).
In its fifth edition, this Fiscal Projections Report presents and discusses medium-term projections for the main fiscal variables of the Central Government. In addition to the recurring content, it includes a box with the recent evolution of discretionary expenses in terms of spending functions and their distribution between investment expenses and administrative costs of the Central Government. It also presents the dependency relationship of these spending categories with the existence of fiscal space and the influence of parliamentary amendments on these expenses.
In previous editions, the Report included a fiscal scenario projection based on the macroeconomic scenario of the Focus Survey. However, due to the mobilization of STN civil servants for the appreciation of the Finance and Control Career, the scenario was not constructed.
A challenging scenario is projected for the management of fiscal policy in the coming years, with an expectation of an increase in public debt in the short term and stabilization in the medium term, given the economic growth scenarios and reduction in interest rates, and maintaining the fiscal consolidation effort, which entails the adoption of measures to recover revenue or review expenses.
Arquivos
- Fiscal Outlook Report n5 December 2024 - Statistical Annex.xlsx (application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet - 65.5 KB)
- RPF-dez24 - Executive Summary.pdf (application/pdf - 412.6 KB)