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Fiscal Outlook Report


Períodicidade: Semestral

2° Semestre

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The Fiscal Outlook Report presents forecasts for the main Central Government fiscal variables in a 10-year horizon. The report provides disaggregated estimates for primary revenues and expenditures, as well as for Central Government and Public Sector primary balances, and scenarios for Brazilian public debt, especially for the General Government Gross Debt (GGGD) and Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) concepts.
The document also provides debt sensitivity and sustainability analyses and forecasts for their main determinants (borrowing requirements and interests).


In this second edition, the Fiscal Outlook Report presents and discusses 10-year projections for the main fiscal variables of the Federal Government. In addition to the recurring content of this report, a novelty is the inclusion of boxes in which specific analyzes are presented on the evolution of some topics of interest at the time, such as compensation and tax refunds, the recent expansion of the government's income transfer program federal government, the proposed reform of the Brazilian fiscal framework presented by technicians from this Secretariat, the effects of the recent GDP review by the IBGE on debt indicators and the fiscal impacts of PEC nº 32/2022 ("PEC of Transition").

This report also marks a change in the choice of the net debt benchmark: the Net General Government Debt (DLGG) instead of the Net Public Sector Debt (DLSP). The rationale for this change is also the subject of a specific box in this issue.

The projections illustrate a challenging scenario for conducting fiscal policy in the coming years, pointing to the need for fiscal consolidation and the proposition of fiscal rules capable of promoting the sustainability of the public debt.