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Fiscal Outlook Report


Períodicidade: Semestral

1° Semestre

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The Fiscal Outlook Report presents forecasts for the main Central Government fiscal variables in a 10-year horizon. The report provides disaggregated estimates for primary revenues and expenditures, as well as for Central Government and Public Sector primary balances, and scenarios for Brazilian public debt, especially for the General Government Gross Debt (GGGD) and Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) concepts.
The document also provides debt sensitivity and sustainability analyses and forecasts for their main determinants (borrowing requirements and interests).


In its third edition, the Fiscal Outlook Report presents and discusses 10-year projections for key fiscal variables of the Federal Government. In addition to the recurring content of this report, it includes boxes that present specific analyses relevant to current economic and fiscal discussions. Specifically, the report analyzes the new Sustainable Fiscal Regime, primary revenues associated with oil and its structural component, and finally, expenses linked to revenues performance in the context of the new regime.

The projections in the report's reference scenario take into account the new rules under discussion in the proposal for the Sustainable Fiscal Regime and the commitment to fiscal targets outlined in the 2024 Budget Guidelines Law Project (PLDO), which requires significant fiscal effort.

A challenging scenario is projected for fiscal policy management in the coming years. The current level of public debt is compatible with a sustainable medium-term trajectory, considering the economic growth scenarios and reductions in interest rates, as well as fiscal consolidation efforts. This requires the adoption of measures to enhance revenue collection or revise expenses.