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Fiscal Outlook Report


Períodicidade: Semestral

2° Semestre

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The Fiscal Outlook Report presents forecasts for the main Central Government fiscal variables in a 10-year horizon. The report provides disaggregated estimates for primary revenues and expenditures, as well as for Central Government and Public Sector primary balances, and scenarios for Brazilian public debt, especially for the General Government Gross Debt (GGGD) and Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) concepts.
The document also provides debt sensitivity and sustainability analyses and forecasts for their main determinants (borrowing requirements and interests).


In its fourth edition, this Fiscal Projections Report presents and discusses 10-year projections for the main fiscal variables of the Central Government. In addition to the recurring content of this report, it includes boxes presenting specific analyses relevant to current economic-fiscal discussions. In particular, the report analyzes the concept of Adjusted Net Revenue (RLA), which serves as the reference for calculating the spending limit of the new fiscal framework; projections of judicial rulings in light of the recent decision by the Supreme Federal Court (STF); the evolution of personnel expenses; revenue measures proposed in the 2024 Budget Bill (PLOA); and the evolution of discretionary expenses in alternative scenarios for minimum spending on education and health.

The forecasts of the reference scenario in the report consider the new rules established in the Sustainable Fiscal Regime, instituted by Law 200/2023, and the commitment to fiscal targets set out in the 2024 Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), which implies significant fiscal effort.

A challenging scenario is projected for fiscal policy management in the coming years, with expectations of an increase in public debt in the short term and stabilization in the medium term, given scenarios of economic growth and reduction in interest rates, and maintaining fiscal consolidation efforts, which requires the adoption of measures to increase revenue or review expenses.